99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Montana House District 57

Edwards is clearly favored to win: Edwards wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.

Edwards (D)
90%
chance of winning
Crank (R)
10%
Average margin
D+9.5
80% of outcomes
Even to D+19
Partisan lean
D+1
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Edwards is favored to win: Edwards wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.

Edwards (D)
66%
chance of winning
Crank (R)
34%
Average margin
D+3.9
80% of outcomes
R+9 to D+17
Partisan lean
D+1
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Statewide map: Montana House of Representatives

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+9.5R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
D+3.9R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Edwards 90%Crank 10%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Edwards 66%Crank 34%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Montana state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Mountain West adjustment
+1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Mountain West adjustmentD+8.7Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+10.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Montana and look-alikeplacesD+8.7Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+9.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+3.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.36
Elected-experience edge0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation1.49
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+4.0R+6.2 vs. nation2020 presidentD+2.8R+1.7 vs. nation2024 presidentD+0.8D+2.3 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
16,142
People per km²
2
Adults with a B.A.+
52%
White, no degree
42%of adults
  • White 90%
  • Hispanic 3%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

7,586 votes · D+0.3
✓ Scott Rosenzweig (D)50.1%
Marty Malone (R)49.9%

2024 President Vote in this district

7,587 two-party votes · D+0.8 · D+2.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%

2022 Earlier district lines

4,700 votes · R+46.4
✓ Fiona B Nave (R)73.2%
Thomas E Flanagan (D)26.8%

2020 Earlier district lines

5,104 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Fiona Nave (R)100.0%

2020 President Vote in this district

8,121 two-party votes · D+2.8 · R+1.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%

2016 President Vote in this district

6,247 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+6.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.0%

Also on the ballot in Montana

U.S. SenateSeth BodnarKurt Alme98%Rep.98%Rep.

Neighboring districts

HD-55Richard GesslingBrad Barker>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-56—Fiona B Nave>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-58Jamie L IsalyJoshua Congleton96%Dem.76%Dem. HD-59Katie Fire ThunderMarc Greendorfer>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-60Alanah GriffithGreg Leman95%Dem.75%Dem. HD-61Rio RolandEric Jacobs>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-66Eric MatthewsOwen Lang99%Dem.94%Dem. HD-78Mark WhiteRandyn Gregg>99%Rep.>99%Rep.