Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 12
Sharp is very likely to win: Sharp wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bruckner (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sharp (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sharp is very likely to win: Sharp wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bruckner (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sharp (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tracy A Sharp
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.44 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,376
- People per km²
- 8
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 6%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,224 votes · R+41.7✓ Tracy A Sharp (R)70.8%
Barry Olson (D)29.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,376 two-party votes · R+36.0 · R+34.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.0%
Kamala Harris (D)32.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
5,414 votes · R+23.6✓ Linda Reksten (R)61.8%
Sterling James Laudon (D)38.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,569 votes · R+13.8✓ Linda Reksten (R)56.9%
Gerry Browning (D)43.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,561 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+35.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.3%
Joe Biden (D)34.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,024 two-party votes · R+37.0 · R+39.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.5%