Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 52
Zinn is very likely to win: Zinn wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Heald (D)
1%
chance of winning
Zinn (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+20.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Zinn is very likely to win: Zinn wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Heald (D)
2%
chance of winning
Zinn (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+21.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Stacy Zinn
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.98 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 11,979
- People per km²
- 203
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,684 votes · R+35.3✓ Bill Mercer (R)67.7%
Carole Boerner (D)32.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,665 two-party votes · R+26.0 · R+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Kamala Harris (D)37.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
2,897 votes · R+18.1✓ Sherry Essmann (R)59.1%
Jenna Martin (D)40.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,179 votes · R+12.0✓ Jimmy Patelis (R)56.0%
Hannah Olson (D)44.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
8,025 two-party votes · R+25.0 · R+29.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Joe Biden (D)37.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,010 two-party votes · R+30.0 · R+32.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.0%
Also on the ballot in Montana
Neighboring districts
HD-38—Greg Oblander>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-43Rudolf HadenLarry Brewster98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-44Mike EatonKatie Zolnikov>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-45Denise BaumBryce Walston97%Dem.80%Dem. HD-50Mark PetersStewart Harris99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-51Precious McKenzieJodee Etchart97%Rep.89%Rep. HD-53Matthew J HankinsTroy Charbonneau>99%Rep.>99%Rep.