Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 84
Caldwell is very likely to win: Caldwell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Nelson (D)
1%
chance of winning
Caldwell (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Caldwell is very likely to win: Caldwell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Nelson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Caldwell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Roy Caldwell
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 13,034
- People per km²
- 14
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,082 votes · R+34.7✓ Julie Dooling (R)67.4%
Michele R Crepeau (D)32.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,032 two-party votes · R+33.6 · R+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Kamala Harris (D)33.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
4,813 votes · D+7.5✓ Jill Cohenour (D)53.8%
Kaitlyn Ruch (R)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,075 votes · R+59.5✓ Charlie Hull (R)79.7%
Mary Ann Dunwell (D)20.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
5,938 two-party votes · R+33.8 · R+38.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,252 two-party votes · R+37.0 · R+39.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.5%
Also on the ballot in Montana
Neighboring districts
HD-17Chris BechtoldJustin W. Cleveland>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-25Jerry FerdererSteve Gist>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-75Patrick SullivanMark Reinschmidt>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-77—Jane Gillette>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-78Mark WhiteRandyn Gregg>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-79Luke MuszkiewiczChiko Olson97%Dem.84%Dem. HD-81Janet EllisJohn J Looney SR98%Dem.82%Dem. HD-82Pete ElverumClinton McKay98%Dem.83%Dem. HD-83Joe CohenourAaron J Leas99%Dem.91%Dem.