Democratic
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 81
Ellis is very likely to win: Ellis wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ellis (D)
98%
chance of winning
Looney (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ellis is clearly favored to win: Ellis wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Ellis (D)
82%
chance of winning
Looney (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
John J Looney SR
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,968
- People per km²
- 91
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
6,299 votes · D+11.1✓ Mary M Caferro (D)55.5%
Dustin Scott (R)44.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,236 two-party votes · D+7.0 · D+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.5%
Donald Trump (R)46.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
4,882 votes · D+15.8✓ Melissa Romano (D)57.9%
Jill Sark (R)42.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,254 votes · D+11.2✓ Mary Caferro (D)55.6%
Bob Leach (R)44.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,980 two-party votes · D+1.9 · R+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.9%
Donald Trump (R)49.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,488 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.4%