DemocraticIncumbent
Montana › Montana House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana House District 72
Hawk is very likely to win: Hawk wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hawk (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Saul (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+24.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hawk is very likely to win: Hawk wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hawk (D)
96%
chance of winning
Saul (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+18.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michael Saul
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Montana state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 12.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 9,764
- People per km²
- 128
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 72%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,940 votes · D+24.7✓ Donavon Hawk (D)62.4%
Andy Johnson (R)37.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,991 two-party votes · D+13.3 · D+14.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.6%
Donald Trump (R)43.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
4,990 votes · R+62.9✓ Tom Welch (R)81.4%
Holt Gibson (D)18.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
5,488 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Welch (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,875 two-party votes · D+19.2 · D+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
4,007 two-party votes · D+19.2 · D+16.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%