Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 39
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (60%).
Maier is favored to win: Maier wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Maier (D)
60%
chance of winning
Stiens (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+1.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Maier (D)
52%
chance of winning
Stiens (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Angela Stiens
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.66 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.66 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,364
- People per km²
- 455
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 63%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,255 votes · R+3.2✓ Angela Stiens (R)51.6%
Vanessa Vaughn West (D)48.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,366 two-party votes · R+0.2 · D+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Kamala Harris (D)49.9%
2022
9,899 votes · R+2.1✓ Owen Donohoe (R)51.0%
Vanessa Vaughnwest (D)49.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,554 votes · R+9.6✓ Owen Donohoe (R)54.7%
Les Lampe (D)45.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,733 two-party votes · R+4.2 · R+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Joe Biden (D)47.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,914 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.3%