Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 15
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).
Hougland is favored to win: Hougland wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Hougland (D)
79%
chance of winning
Bohi (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Hougland is favored to win: Hougland wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Hougland (D)
68%
chance of winning
Bohi (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+4.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Lauren N. Bohi
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,142
- People per km²
- 528
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 6%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,764 votes · R+1.4✓ Lauren N Bohi (R)50.7%
Allison Hougland (D)49.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,880 two-party votes · R+0.9 · D+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022
5,752 votes · D+1.4✓ Allison Hougland (D)50.7%
Matt Bingesser (R)49.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,440 votes · R+2.9✓ John Toplikar (R)51.4%
Cole Fine (D)48.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,275 two-party votes · R+0.9 · R+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Joe Biden (D)49.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,246 two-party votes · R+14.3 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.8%
Also on the ballot in Kansas
Neighboring districts
HD-5Henry JohnsCourtney Sappington98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-14Sherry GieblerCharlotte EsauD flipD flip80%Dem.73%Dem. HD-26Laura JohnsonChip VanHouden89%Rep.76%Rep. HD-30Amelia WiederaendersLaura WilliamsD flipD flip78%Dem.83%Dem. HD-43Kristen SchultzWilliam (Bill) Sutton97%Rep.92%Rep. HD-49Nikki McDonaldTricia Sinclair96%Dem.81%Dem. HD-78Tim LundbergRobyn R. EssexFlip riskFlip risk57%Dem.58%Dem. HD-121Kelsey StockThomas PalenskeD flipFlip risk65%Dem.53%Dem.