Democratic
Jennifer Day
Former state representative from the 48th district (2020–2021)
- Experience
- State legislature
Kansas › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas Secretary of State
Proctor is clearly favored to win: Proctor wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Day (D)
14%
chance of winning
Proctor (R)
86%
- Average margin
- R+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 1in our database
Proctor is favored to win: Proctor wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Day (D)
23%
chance of winning
Proctor (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Pat Proctor
State representative from the 41st district (2021–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.9Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Day | Proctor | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Day's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 1 | 542 RV | 37 | 39 | R+2 | R+5.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 1, 2026.
The state
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 2,947,197
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,303,655 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
995,404 votes · R+20.1✓ Scott J Schwab (R)58.4%
Jeanna Repass (D)38.8%
Cullene Lang (L)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,341,729 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Joe Biden (D)42.5%
2018
1,043,843 votes · R+9.0✓ Scott Schwab (R)52.6%
Brian "bam" McClendon (D)43.9%
Rob Hodgkinson (L)3.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,098,023 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%