Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 96
Kessler is favored to win: Kessler wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Maldonado (D)
32%
chance of winning
Kessler (R)
68%
- Average margin
- R+3.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kessler is favored to win: Kessler wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Maldonado (D)
34%
chance of winning
Kessler (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tom Kessler
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.16 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.16 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,092
- People per km²
- 867
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 11%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 8%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,663 votes · R+10.0✓ Tom Kessler (R)52.0%
Dan Johnson (D)42.6%
Joseph Trotter (L)5.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
5,951 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Kamala Harris (D)46.1%
2022
2,648 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Kessler (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
6,662 votes · R+6.5✓ Tom Kessler (R)53.2%
Stephanie Yeager (D)46.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
6,846 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Joe Biden (D)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,720 two-party votes · R+14.3 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.8%