DemocraticIncumbent
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 56
Weigel is very likely to win: Weigel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Weigel (D)
99%
chance of winning
Fajardo (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Weigel is clearly favored to win: Weigel wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Weigel (D)
93%
chance of winning
Fajardo (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+14.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Elvin Fajardo
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.36 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,433
- People per km²
- 340
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 10%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,861 votes · D+9.3✓ Virgil Weigel (D)54.6%
Pennie Boyer-Kloos (R)45.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
10,922 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+11.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2022
6,349 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Virgil Weigel (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,087 votes · D+2.4✓ Virgil Weigel (D)51.1%
Tim Clothier (R)48.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,728 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,521 two-party votes · D+1.3 · R+0.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.7%
Donald Trump (R)49.3%