Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 30
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Wiederaenders is favored to win: Wiederaenders wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Wiederaenders (D)
78%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (83%).
Wiederaenders is clearly favored to win: Wiederaenders wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Wiederaenders (D)
83%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+9.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Laura Williams
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.55 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,926
- People per km²
- 406
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,691 votes · R+5.2✓ Laura Williams (R)52.6%
Betsey Lasister (D)47.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,855 two-party votes · D+3.3 · D+4.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.6%
Donald Trump (R)48.4%
2022
8,858 votes · R+1.6✓ Laura Williams (R)50.8%
Courtney Eiterich (D)49.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,287 votes · D+4.2✓ Brandon Woodard (D)52.0%
Laura Williams (R)47.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,577 two-party votes · D+4.0 · R+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,575 two-party votes · R+8.6 · R+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%
Also on the ballot in Kansas
Neighboring districts
HD-14Sherry GieblerCharlotte EsauD flipD flip80%Dem.73%Dem. HD-15Allison HouglandLauren N. BohiD flipD flip79%Dem.68%Dem. HD-17Jo Ella HoyeJim Eschrich>99%Dem.96%Dem. HD-49Nikki McDonaldTricia Sinclair96%Dem.81%Dem. HD-108Brandon Woodard—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-117Brandon HollandAdam Turk76%Rep.68%Rep. HD-121Kelsey StockThomas PalenskeD flipFlip risk65%Dem.53%Dem.