Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 8
Croft is favored to win: Croft wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Phillips (D)
36%
chance of winning
Croft (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Phillips (D)
45%
chance of winning
Croft (R)
55%
- Average margin
- R+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Chris Croft
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.32 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.83 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,679
- People per km²
- 826
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 69%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,186 votes · R+10.5✓ Chris Croft (R)55.3%
Pam Shernuk (D)44.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,165 two-party votes · R+6.2 · R+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Kamala Harris (D)46.9%
2022
10,006 votes · R+9.0✓ Chris Croft (R)54.5%
Pam Shernuk (D)45.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,429 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Chris Croft (R)94.2%
Writein (—)5.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,467 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Joe Biden (D)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,080 two-party votes · R+17.6 · R+19.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.2%