Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 121
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (65%).
Stock is favored to win: Stock wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Stock (D)
65%
chance of winning
Palenske (R)
35%
- Average margin
- D+2.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (53% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Stock (D)
53%
chance of winning
Palenske (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Thomas Palenske
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,282
- People per km²
- 110
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
12,254 votes · R+11.0✓ John Resman (R)55.5%
Mel Pinick (D)44.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
12,439 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Kamala Harris (D)47.8%
2022
9,105 votes · R+9.2✓ John Resman (R)54.6%
Mel Pinick (D)45.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,986 votes · R+18.4✓ John Resman (R)59.1%
James Rexford (D)40.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
22,706 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Joe Biden (D)47.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,622 two-party votes · R+16.2 · R+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.9%