DemocraticIncumbent
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 47
Quinlan is clearly favored to win: Quinlan wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Quinlan (D)
91%
chance of winning
Talaeai (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+10.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Quinlan is favored to win: Quinlan wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Quinlan (D)
70%
chance of winning
Talaeai (R)
30%
- Average margin
- D+5.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mark Talaeai
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 18.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 18.59 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,571
- People per km²
- 44
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 17%of adults
- White 30%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 2%
- Asian 16%
- Other / multiracial 41%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,021 votes · D+15.1✓ QUINLAN, Sean (D)57.5%
AGUIRRE, John W. (Johnny) (R)42.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,529 two-party votes · R+2.8 · R+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Kamala Harris (D)48.6%
2022
6,241 votes · D+13.5✓ Sean Quinlan (D)56.8%
Mark Talaeai (R)43.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
9,432 votes · D+15.0✓ Sean Quinlan (D)57.5%
Boyd Ready (R)42.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,284 two-party votes · D+4.7 · D+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,140 two-party votes · D+9.9 · D+7.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%