DemocraticIncumbent
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 31
Ichiyama is very likely to win: Ichiyama wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ichiyama (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Valdez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ichiyama is very likely to win: Ichiyama wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ichiyama (D)
99%
chance of winning
Valdez (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+27.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Nancy Valdez
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 19.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 19.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 35,377
- People per km²
- 1,649
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 15%of adults
- White 26%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 5%
- Asian 35%
- Other / multiracial 19%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,084 votes · D+38.0✓ ICHIYAMA, Linda (D)69.0%
VALDEZ, Nancy A. (R)31.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,269 two-party votes · D+19.9 · D+21.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.9%
Donald Trump (R)40.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
10,366 two-party votes · D+25.8 · D+21.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.9%
Donald Trump (R)37.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
5,957 votes · D+40.0✓ Aaron Ling Johanson (D)70.0%
Eric H L Ching (R)30.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,088 two-party votes · D+30.4 · D+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.2%
Donald Trump (R)34.8%
2014 Earlier district lines
5,150 votes · R+43.6✓ Aaron Ling Johanson (R)71.8%
Lei Sharsh (D)28.2%