Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Hawaii House District 15

Nadine K. Nakamura has no major-party opponent.

Nadine K. Nakamura has no major-party opponent.

The candidates

The district

Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+37.1D+34.9 vs. nation2020 presidentD+31.0D+26.5 vs. nation2024 presidentD+19.7D+21.2 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
25,889
People per km²
30
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
24%of adults
  • White 39%
  • Hispanic 10%
  • Black 1%
  • Asian 22%
  • Other / multiracial 28%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

9,348 votes · D+42.4
✓ NAKAMURA, Nadine K. (D)71.2%
MORANZ, David A. (R)28.8%

2024 President Vote in this district

9,906 two-party votes · D+19.7 · D+21.2 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.9%
Donald Trump (R)40.1%

2022

7,424 votes · D+47.8
✓ Nadine K Nakamura (D)73.9%
Greg Bentley (R)26.1%

2020 Earlier district lines

10,592 votes · D+45.6
✓ James Kunane Tokioka (D)72.8%
Steve Yoder (R)27.2%

2020 President Vote in this district

11,007 two-party votes · D+31.0 · D+26.5 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%

2016 President Vote in this district

8,062 two-party votes · D+37.1 · D+34.9 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)68.6%
Donald Trump (R)31.4%