DemocraticIncumbent
Darius K. Kila
- Experience
- State legislature
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 44
Kila is favored to win: Kila wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Kila (D)
78%
chance of winning
Weaver (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (62%).
Weaver is favored to win: Weaver wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Kila (D)
38%
chance of winning
Weaver (R)
62%
- Average margin
- R+3.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Charla (Kahealani) Weaver
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.08 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 37.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 20,611
- People per km²
- 211
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 6%of adults
- White 8%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 4%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 64%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
6,917 two-party votes · R+12.9 · R+11.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Kamala Harris (D)43.6%
2022
5,349 votes · D+25.0✓ Darius K Kila (D)62.5%
Kimberly Kopetseg (R)37.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
7,275 votes · D+37.9✓ Cedric Asuega Gates (D)62.1%
Maysana Akahai Aldeguer (R)28.0%
Joseph K Simpliciano Jr (—)9.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,171 two-party votes · R+0.4 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Joe Biden (D)49.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
5,337 votes · D+25.4✓ Cedric Asuega Gates (D)62.7%
PA'ALUHI, Marc K. (R)37.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
2,691 two-party votes · D+19.6 · D+17.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.8%
Donald Trump (R)40.2%