DemocraticIncumbent
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 23
Olds is very likely to win: Olds wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Olds (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Muh (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Olds is very likely to win: Olds wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Olds (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Muh (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Victor Muh
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+39: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,908
- People per km²
- 10,565
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 6%of adults
- White 11%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 2%
- Asian 57%
- Other / multiracial 24%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
8,005 two-party votes · D+38.6 · D+40.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)69.3%
Donald Trump (R)30.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,149 two-party votes · D+39.2 · D+34.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.6%
Donald Trump (R)30.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,285 two-party votes · D+47.8 · D+45.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.9%
Donald Trump (R)26.1%
2012 Earlier district lines
9,252 votes · D+62.2✓ Isaac W Choy (D)81.1%
Zach Thomson (R)18.9%