DemocraticIncumbent
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 16
Evslin is very likely to win: Evslin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Evslin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hazlebeck (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Evslin is very likely to win: Evslin wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Evslin (D)
99%
chance of winning
Hazlebeck (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+26.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
David Hazlebeck
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 20.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 20.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,573
- People per km²
- 61
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 21%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 1%
- Asian 41%
- Other / multiracial 27%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,327 votes · D+38.9✓ EVSLIN, Luke A. (D)69.5%
YODER, Steve (R)30.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,814 two-party votes · D+18.9 · D+20.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.4%
Donald Trump (R)40.6%
2022
7,539 votes · D+46.7✓ James Kunane Tokioka (D)73.3%
Steve Yoder (R)26.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
9,940 votes · D+47.5✓ Daynette Morikawa (D)73.7%
Ana Mo Des (R)26.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
10,970 two-party votes · D+27.7 · D+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.8%
Donald Trump (R)36.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,032 two-party votes · D+34.5 · D+32.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.3%
Donald Trump (R)32.7%