Democratic
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 26
Ross is very likely to win: Ross wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ross (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Silva (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+55
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ross is very likely to win: Ross wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ross (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Silva (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+48.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tony Silva
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,394
- People per km²
- 5,960
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 8%of adults
- White 17%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 49%
- Other / multiracial 27%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
9,750 two-party votes · D+42.1 · D+43.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.1%
Donald Trump (R)28.9%
2022
7,611 votes · D+43.6✓ Della Au Belatti (D)71.8%
Charlotte Rosecrans (R)28.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,839 two-party votes · D+44.0 · D+39.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.0%
Donald Trump (R)28.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,780 two-party votes · D+46.6 · D+44.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.3%
Donald Trump (R)26.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
5,626 votes · D+37.1✓ Scott K Saiki (D)68.6%
Eric B Marshall (R)31.4%
2012 Earlier district lines
6,841 votes · D+21.7✓ Scott K Saiki (D)60.9%
Tiffany H Y Au (R)39.1%