Democratic
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 40
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (44% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Martinez (D)
44%
chance of winning
Oda (R)
56%
- Average margin
- R+1.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Martinez (D)
49%
chance of winning
Oda (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Julie Reyes Oda
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.62 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.39 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 28,800
- People per km²
- 785
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 6%of adults
- White 10%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 3%
- Asian 44%
- Other / multiracial 31%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
8,389 votes · R+5.7✓ REYES ODA, Julie (R)51.3%
MARTINEZ, Rose (D)45.7%
ULUFANUA, Christian P. (—)3.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,561 two-party votes · R+8.7 · R+7.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Kamala Harris (D)45.7%
2022
5,997 votes · D+3.3✓ Rose Martinez (D)51.6%
Janie Gueso (R)48.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
9,251 votes · R+16.0✓ Bob McDermott (R)58.0%
Rose Martinez (D)42.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,305 two-party votes · R+0.1 · R+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
5,861 two-party votes · D+12.2 · D+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.1%
Donald Trump (R)43.9%