DemocraticIncumbent
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 20
Grandinetti is very likely to win: Grandinetti wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grandinetti (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Asing (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Grandinetti is very likely to win: Grandinetti wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grandinetti (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Asing (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+47.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
David Asing
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.87 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.87 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,930
- People per km²
- 416
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 7%of adults
- White 19%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 54%
- Other / multiracial 21%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,918 votes · D+38.4✓ NAKADA GRANDINETTI, Tina (D)69.2%
SOLOMON, Corinne S. (R)30.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,597 two-party votes · D+41.0 · D+42.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.5%
Donald Trump (R)29.5%
2022
8,914 votes · D+49.4✓ Bertrand Kobayashi (D)74.7%
Jessica Caiazzo (R)25.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,373 votes · D+49.3✓ Jackson Sayama (D)74.6%
Julia E Allen (R)25.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,561 two-party votes · D+44.3 · D+39.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.1%
Donald Trump (R)27.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,262 two-party votes · D+41.9 · D+39.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)70.9%
Donald Trump (R)29.1%