DemocraticIncumbent
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 46
Perruso is very likely to win: Perruso wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Perruso (D)
98%
chance of winning
Gabriel (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+17.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Perruso is clearly favored to win: Perruso wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Perruso (D)
91%
chance of winning
Gabriel (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Daniel Michael Gabriel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.49 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 53,559
- People per km²
- 146
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 26%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 8%
- Asian 28%
- Other / multiracial 23%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,375 votes · D+15.9✓ PERRUSO, Amy A. (D)57.9%
GABRIEL, Daniel Michael (R)42.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,734 two-party votes · D+4.6 · D+6.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2022
7,016 votes · D+25.3✓ Amy A Perruso (D)62.6%
John E Miller (R)37.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
10,829 two-party votes · D+18.1 · D+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.1%
Donald Trump (R)40.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
4,845 votes · D+32.3✓ Amy A Perruso (D)66.2%
John E Miller (R)33.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,751 two-party votes · D+25.4 · D+23.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.7%
Donald Trump (R)37.3%