99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Hawaii · Hawaii House District 47 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Sean Quinlan

DemocraticIncumbent

2026 race · Hawaii House District 47

91% chance of winning · race rated Likely D

91%9%

70% chance of winning · race rated Lean D

70%30%
● Sean QuinlanINC● Mark Talaeai
Full race forecast

Background

Current office
Hawaii House of Representatives, HD-47
Past races on file
4 (4 won)

Links: Candidate list (source)

Electoral history

Earlier races in Hawaii, newest first, matched by name in the results archive.

  1. 2022

    House of Representatives · HD-47 Nov 8, 2022

    D · 56.8% · 3,543 votes

    Won
  2. 2020

    House of Representatives · HD-47 Nov 3, 2020

    D · 57.5% · 5,425 votes

    Won
  3. 2018

    House of Representatives · HD-47 Nov 6, 2018

    D · 58.5% · 3,792 votes

    Won
  4. 2016

    House of Representatives · HD-47 Nov 8, 2016

    D · 50.8% · 3,542 votes

    Won

Opponents in 2026