Democratic
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 18
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Wataru is very likely to win: Wataru wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wataru (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gedeon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (100%).
Wataru is very likely to win: Wataru wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wataru (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gedeon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Joe Gedeon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 25,336
- People per km²
- 220
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 58%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 24%
- Hispanic 6%
- Asian 44%
- Other / multiracial 26%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
14,151 two-party votes · D+32.4 · D+33.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.2%
Donald Trump (R)33.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,781 votes · D+35.7✓ Mark Jun Hashem (D)67.8%
Lori Ford (R)32.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,128 two-party votes · D+35.2 · D+30.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.6%
Donald Trump (R)32.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
10,255 votes · D+36.5✓ Mark Jun Hashem (D)68.3%
Ola Souza (R)31.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,350 two-party votes · D+31.0 · D+28.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%
2014 Earlier district lines
10,362 votes · D+32.9✓ Mark Jun Hashem (D)66.5%
Susan Kehaulani Halvorsen (R)33.5%