Democratic
Hawaii › Hawaii House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hawaii House District 14
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (99%).
Patel is very likely to win: Patel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Patel (D)
99%
chance of winning
Cochran (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (99%).
Patel is very likely to win: Patel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Patel (D)
99%
chance of winning
Cochran (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+25.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Hawaii state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.7How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 29,524
- People per km²
- 38
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 20%of adults
- White 30%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 1%
- Asian 28%
- Other / multiracial 30%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,641 votes · D+12.6✓ COCHRAN, Elle (D)56.3%
ARMSTRONG, Kelly J. (R)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,149 two-party votes · D+16.3 · D+17.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%
2022
6,866 votes · D+29.0✓ Elle Cochran (D)54.7%
Kelly J Armstrong (R)30.1%
Leonard K Nakoa III (OTH)15.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,473 votes · D+52.4✓ Nadine K Nakamura (D)76.2%
Steve Monas (R)23.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,557 two-party votes · D+30.2 · D+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)65.1%
Donald Trump (R)34.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,445 two-party votes · D+32.9 · D+30.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.5%
Donald Trump (R)33.5%