Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 38
Forecast without candidates. Candidates not yet compiled: this forecast is for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.
The Republican is very likely to win: the Republican wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
- Average margin
- R+39.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+31
- Partisan lean
- R+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
The Republican is very likely to win: the Republican wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
- Average margin
- R+44.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+58 to R+32
- Partisan lean
- R+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
No candidates on file yet.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+48: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 70,401
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 17%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.