Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 27
Forecast without candidates. Candidates not yet compiled: this forecast is for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.
The Democrat is very likely to win: the Democrat wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
- Average margin
- D+19.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
The Democrat is very likely to win: the Democrat wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
- Average margin
- D+17.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
No candidates on file yet.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 87,691
- People per km²
- 770
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 34%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.