DemocraticIncumbentCandidate
Duy Nguyen
Incumbent assembly member (2022-present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 8
Nguyen is very likely to win: Nguyen wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Nguyen (D)
97%
chance of winning
Farrakhan (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Nguyen is clearly favored to win: Nguyen wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Nguyen (D)
84%
chance of winning
Farrakhan (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Paul John Cook Sr.
RepublicanCandidate
David Farrakhan
RepublicanCandidate
Joseph "Joey" Charafi
Small-business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.74 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.63 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.63 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 80,407
- People per km²
- 1,644
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 29%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 13%
- Asian 30%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,062 votes · D+7.2✓ Duy Nguyen (D)53.6%
Kelly Chapman (R)46.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,559 two-party votes · D+2.5 · D+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2022
20,517 votes · D+11.9✓ Duy Nguyen (D)55.9%
Jenann Logan (R)44.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,442 votes · D+16.7✓ Jason Frierson (D)58.3%
Edward Facey (R)41.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
30,382 two-party votes · D+12.8 · D+8.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.4%
Donald Trump (R)43.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,150 two-party votes · D+15.8 · D+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.9%
Donald Trump (R)42.1%