DemocraticIncumbent
Selena Torres-Fossett
Incumbent assembly member (2018-present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 3
Torres-Fossett is very likely to win: Torres-Fossett wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Torres-Fossett (D)
99%
chance of winning
Erbacher (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Torres-Fossett is clearly favored to win: Torres-Fossett wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Torres-Fossett (D)
94%
chance of winning
Erbacher (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+15.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanCandidate
Harold Erbacher
RepublicanCandidate
Joseph P. Silvestri
2012 Libertarian candidate for the 4th congressional district
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 65,569
- People per km²
- 2,293
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 35%
- Hispanic 42%
- Black 13%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,918 votes · D+12.1✓ Selena Elizabeth Torres (D)56.0%
Michele Rizza (R)44.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
27,910 two-party votes · D+9.2 · D+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%
2022
18,672 votes · D+10.6✓ Selena Elizabeth Torres (D)55.3%
Joshua Lemack (R)44.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,119 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Selena Torres (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,161 two-party votes · D+14.6 · D+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,324 two-party votes · D+15.2 · D+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.6%
Donald Trump (R)42.4%