DemocraticIncumbent
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 63
Mohamed is very likely to win: Mohamed wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mohamed (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Napper (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+75.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+66 to D+85
- Partisan lean
- D+78
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mohamed is very likely to win: Mohamed wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Mohamed (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Napper (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+82.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+69 to D+95
- Partisan lean
- D+78
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Diane Napper
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.97 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+78: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 78,588
- People per km²
- 2,175
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
52,041 two-party votes · D+78.9 · D+80.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)89.4%
Donald Trump (R)10.6%
2022
45,618 votes · D+71.7✓ Zaynab Mohamed (D)85.6%
Shawn Holster (R)14.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
52,473 votes · D+66.4✓ Patricia Torres Ray (D)77.6%
Diane Napper (R)15.7%
Chris Wright (—)6.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
55,190 two-party votes · D+76.7 · D+72.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)88.4%
Donald Trump (R)11.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
47,673 votes · D+61.8✓ Patricia Torres Ray (D)80.7%
Ron Moey (R)19.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
48,095 two-party votes · D+73.4 · D+71.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)86.7%
Donald Trump (R)13.3%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
SD-50Karla HultOwen Michaelson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-51Simon Trautmann CordovaJuline Birgersson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-60Doron ClarkAbigail Wolters>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-61Scott Dibble—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-62Omar Fateh—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-64Erin MurphyRobert Bushard>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-66Clare Oumou VerbetenKathleen Bart>99%Dem.>99%Dem.