Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 51
Cordova is very likely to win: Cordova wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cordova (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Birgersson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cordova is very likely to win: Cordova wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Cordova (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Birgersson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+40
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Juline Birgersson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+40: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 92,735
- People per km²
- 1,069
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 14%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
43,116 two-party votes · D+40.3 · D+41.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.1%
Donald Trump (R)29.9%
2022
33,228 votes · D+39.4✓ Melissa Halvorson Wiklund (D)69.6%
Frank Pafko (R)30.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
50,168 votes · D+22.6✓ Jim Carlson (D)61.2%
Douglas D Willetts (R)38.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,414 two-party votes · D+41.0 · D+36.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)70.5%
Donald Trump (R)29.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
45,071 votes · D+8.2✓ Jim Carlson (D)54.0%
Victor Lake (R)45.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,158 two-party votes · D+33.3 · D+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.6%
Donald Trump (R)33.4%