DemocraticIncumbent
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 55
Port is very likely to win: Port wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Port (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Holston (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Port is very likely to win: Port wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Port (D)
98%
chance of winning
Holston (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+20.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Van Holston
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.7 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 84,397
- People per km²
- 894
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 12%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
44,761 two-party votes · D+15.7 · D+17.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.8%
Donald Trump (R)42.2%
2022
34,351 votes · D+10.7✓ Lindsey Port (D)55.3%
Pam Myhra (R)44.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
50,452 votes · R+23.3✓ Eric Pratt (R)61.6%
Sahra Odowa (D)38.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,663 two-party votes · D+17.6 · D+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.8%
Donald Trump (R)41.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
42,510 votes · R+37.4✓ Eric Pratt (R)68.5%
Ali C Ali (D)31.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
38,835 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
SD-50Karla HultOwen Michaelson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-51Simon Trautmann CordovaJuline Birgersson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-52Liz ReyerBrady O'Neil>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-54Rick OlsonBen BakebergFlip risk64%Rep.51%Dem. SD-56Erin Maye QuadeRaymond David Petersen>99%Dem.98%Dem. SD-57Steven SchroerZach Duckworth70%Rep.60%Rep.