DemocraticIncumbent
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 34
Hoffman is very likely to win: Hoffman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hoffman (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Attia (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+21.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hoffman is very likely to win: Hoffman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hoffman (D)
95%
chance of winning
Attia (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+16.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Karen Attia
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.05 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 89,375
- People per km²
- 450
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 12%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
49,768 two-party votes · D+12.8 · D+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.4%
Donald Trump (R)43.6%
2022
38,139 votes · D+9.8✓ John Hoffman (D)54.9%
Karen Attia (R)45.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
57,836 votes · R+1.6✓ Warren Limmer (R)50.7%
Bonnie Westlin (D)49.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
50,272 two-party votes · D+11.9 · D+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
48,569 votes · R+20.6✓ Warren Limmer (R)60.2%
Bonnie Westlin (D)39.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,750 two-party votes · D+3.5 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
SD-30Leah TempleEric Lucero99%Rep.98%Rep. SD-31Gadisa BerkessaCalvin Bahr99%Rep.97%Rep. SD-32Chris FordMichael KreunFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.55%Dem. SD-35Angela NelsonJim AbelerD flipD flip76%Dem.79%Dem. SD-37Kristy JanigoBrady HoagD flipD flip95%Dem.89%Dem. SD-38Susan PhaBrad Olson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-39Mary K KuneshPam Wolf>99%Dem.>99%Dem.