Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 28
Koran is very likely to win: Koran wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Glenna (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Koran (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+25.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Koran is very likely to win: Koran wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Glenna (D)
1%
chance of winning
Koran (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+29.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Koran
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.34 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.34 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 93,825
- People per km²
- 54
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
53,008 two-party votes · R+34.5 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.3%
Kamala Harris (D)32.7%
2022
38,720 votes · R+34.5✓ Mark Koran (R)67.2%
Victoria Ann Bird (D)32.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
43,030 votes · R+15.4✓ Jeremy R Miller (R)57.7%
Sarah Kruger (D)42.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
53,200 two-party votes · R+32.8 · R+37.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Joe Biden (D)33.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
40,045 votes · R+26.1✓ Jeremy Miller (R)63.0%
Jon Pieper (D)36.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
43,498 two-party votes · R+35.4 · R+37.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.3%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
SD-10Tara KillenNathan Wesenberg>99%Rep.>99%Rep. SD-11Mary CarlsonJason Rarick96%Rep.94%Rep. SD-27Brandon Van DoverAndrew Mathews>99%Rep.>99%Rep. SD-31Gadisa BerkessaCalvin Bahr99%Rep.97%Rep. SD-32Chris FordMichael KreunFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.55%Dem. SD-33Nat SmithKarin HousleyD flipD flip65%Dem.67%Dem.