DemocraticIncumbent
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 40
Marty is very likely to win: Marty wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Marty (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Japuntich (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+36.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Marty is very likely to win: Marty wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Marty (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Japuntich (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Rachel Japuntich
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 83,412
- People per km²
- 787
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 55%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 6%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
48,727 two-party votes · D+33.8 · D+35.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.9%
Donald Trump (R)33.1%
2022
40,903 votes · D+29.7✓ John Marty (D)64.8%
Rachel Japuntich (R)35.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
33,992 votes · D+43.1✓ Chris A Eaton (D)71.5%
Robert Marvin (R)28.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
53,135 two-party votes · D+32.8 · D+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.4%
Donald Trump (R)33.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
31,179 votes · D+36.2✓ Chris Eaton (D)67.8%
Robert Marvin (R)31.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
45,528 two-party votes · D+23.9 · D+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.9%
Donald Trump (R)38.1%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
SD-32Chris FordMichael KreunFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.55%Dem. SD-36Heather GustafsonHeidi Heino99%Dem.91%Dem. SD-39Mary K KuneshPam Wolf>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-44Sam RosemarkJames Tacheny>99%Dem.99%Dem. SD-60Doron ClarkAbigail Wolters>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-66Clare Oumou VerbetenKathleen Bart>99%Dem.>99%Dem.