DemocraticIncumbent
Susan Pha
- Experience
- State legislature
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 38
Pha is very likely to win: Pha wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pha (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Olson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pha is very likely to win: Pha wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Pha (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Olson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+45.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+59
- Partisan lean
- D+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brad Olson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.82 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.02 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 82,064
- People per km²
- 1,480
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 30%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 34%
- Asian 18%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
31,754 two-party votes · D+40.0 · D+41.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)70.0%
Donald Trump (R)30.0%
2022
22,088 votes · D+38.0✓ Susan Pha (D)63.9%
Brad Kohler (R)28.7%
Mary Oconnor (OTH)7.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
53,845 votes · R+4.3✓ Roger Chamberlain (R)52.1%
Justin Stofferahn (D)47.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
34,764 two-party votes · D+43.0 · D+38.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)71.5%
Donald Trump (R)28.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
46,255 votes · R+17.3✓ Roger Chamberlain (R)58.6%
Pat Davern (D)41.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,930 two-party votes · D+39.7 · D+37.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.9%
Donald Trump (R)30.1%