Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 99
Humphries is very likely to win: Humphries wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Barlow (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Humphries (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+22.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Humphries is very likely to win: Humphries wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Barlow (D)
2%
chance of winning
Humphries (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+21.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Susan Humphries
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -30.69 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,054
- People per km²
- 349
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,696 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Susan Humphries (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
12,464 two-party votes · R+24.6 · R+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Kamala Harris (D)37.7%
2022
7,273 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Susan Humphries (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,778 votes · R+33.5✓ Susan Humphries (R)66.7%
Phil Hodson (D)33.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,596 two-party votes · R+25.7 · R+30.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Joe Biden (D)37.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,118 two-party votes · R+39.1 · R+41.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.5%