Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 2
Muter is very likely to win: Muter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rowland (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Muter (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Muter is very likely to win: Muter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Rowland (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Muter (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+36.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dan Muter
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 26,657
- People per km²
- 11
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
10,902 votes · R+38.5✓ Kenneth "ken" Collins (R)69.2%
Melesia "lissa" Rhodes (D)30.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,017 two-party votes · R+43.2 · R+41.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.6%
Kamala Harris (D)28.4%
2022
6,566 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kenneth Collins (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,874 votes · R+24.3✓ Kenneth Collins (R)62.2%
Lynn D Grant (D)37.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,381 two-party votes · R+40.7 · R+45.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.3%
Joe Biden (D)29.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,255 two-party votes · R+40.6 · R+42.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.7%