Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 82
Howell is very likely to win: Howell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beauchamp (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Howell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+23.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Howell is very likely to win: Howell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beauchamp (D)
1%
chance of winning
Howell (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+28.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Leah Howell
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.19 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,132
- People per km²
- 188
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,090 votes · R+34.6✓ Leah Howell (R)67.3%
Kyle Beauchamp (D)32.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
11,392 two-party votes · R+33.1 · R+31.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.5%
Kamala Harris (D)33.5%
2022
8,328 votes · R+31.0✓ Leah Howell (R)65.5%
Misti Hobbs (D)34.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,272 votes · R+40.3✓ Jesse Burris (R)70.0%
Edward Hackerott (D)29.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,492 two-party votes · R+33.2 · R+37.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.6%
Joe Biden (D)33.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,292 two-party votes · R+41.8 · R+44.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.1%