DemocraticIncumbent
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 103
Martinez is very likely to win: Martinez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Martinez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chessher (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+29 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Martinez is very likely to win: Martinez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Martinez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chessher (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jordan Chessher
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.16 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 34.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 21,837
- People per km²
- 865
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 15%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 38%
- Hispanic 47%
- Black 9%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
2,817 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Angela Martinez (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
4,230 two-party votes · D+23.4 · D+24.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.7%
Donald Trump (R)38.3%
2022
2,333 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Angela Martinez (D)73.6%
Loren John Hermreck (L)26.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,279 votes · D+31.6✓ Ponkawe Victors (D)61.1%
Susanne Haynes (R)31.7%
Loren John Hermreck (—)7.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,956 two-party votes · D+29.4 · D+24.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.7%
Donald Trump (R)35.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,761 two-party votes · D+23.5 · D+21.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.7%
Donald Trump (R)38.3%