Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 47
Ellis is very likely to win: Ellis wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Williams (D)
1%
chance of winning
Ellis (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+18.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ellis is very likely to win: Ellis wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Williams (D)
1%
chance of winning
Ellis (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+23.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Paula Newell Ellis
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 18,349
- People per km²
- 10
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
12,546 votes · R+32.3✓ Ronald B Ellis (R)66.1%
Mary T Williams (D)33.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
12,544 two-party votes · R+32.8 · R+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Kamala Harris (D)33.6%
2022
7,819 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ronald Ellis (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,505 votes · R+42.7✓ Ronald B Ellis (R)71.4%
Michael Caddell (D)28.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
12,402 two-party votes · R+27.8 · R+32.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Joe Biden (D)36.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,029 two-party votes · R+31.3 · R+33.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.4%
Also on the ballot in Kansas
Neighboring districts
HD-5Henry JohnsCourtney Sappington98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-10Suzanne Wikle—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-42Brandon WendtLance W. Neelly96%Rep.92%Rep. HD-44Barbara W. Ballard—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-45Mike Amyx—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-50—Kyle McNorton>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-54Chris TannerKen Corbet>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-61—Francis Awerkamp>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-62—Sean M. Willcott>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-63Adam BoothAllen Reavis>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-117Brandon HollandAdam Turk76%Rep.68%Rep.