Democratic
Kansas › Kansas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas House District 81
Carpenter is very likely to win: Carpenter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bennett (D)
1%
chance of winning
Carpenter (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carpenter is very likely to win: Carpenter wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bennett (D)
2%
chance of winning
Carpenter (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+21.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Blake Carpenter
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -29.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -29.64 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 18,204
- People per km²
- 171
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 5%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
5,896 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Blake Carpenter (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,127 two-party votes · R+26.8 · R+25.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Kamala Harris (D)36.6%
2022
4,231 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Blake Carpenter (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,510 votes · R+29.0✓ Blake Carpenter (R)64.4%
Matthew Joyce (D)35.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
7,958 two-party votes · R+26.7 · R+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Joe Biden (D)36.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
6,024 two-party votes · R+32.8 · R+35.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.6%
Also on the ballot in Kansas
Neighboring districts
HD-77Troy NicksKristey S. Williams>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-82Kyle BeauchampLeah Howell>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-83Brandon J. WhippleZachary Werhan>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-86Abi BoatmanKevin Thompson99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-88Candace LandersSandy PickertD flipD flip65%Dem.67%Dem. HD-98Erika L. LewisCyndi Howerton99%Rep.98%Rep.