Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 10
2 seatsOlson is very likely to win: Olson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Hunter (D)
3%
chance of winning
Olson (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Olson is clearly favored to win: Olson wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hunter (D)
7%
chance of winning
Olson (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
0.1 D · 1.9 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Helen Hunter
Democratic
Brian Calaway
RepublicanIncumbent
Justin Olson
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
James Rogers
No Labels
David Scott
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.68 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 241,890
- People per km²
- 1,101
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
211,157 votes✓ Justin Olson (—)31.0%
✓ Ralph Heap (—)30.2%
Helen Hunter (—)19.4%
Stephanie Simmons (—)19.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
119,086 two-party votes · R+21.1 · R+19.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Kamala Harris (D)39.4%
2022
135,772 votes · R+16.1✓ Justin Heap (R)36.8%
✓ Barbara Rowley Parker (R)36.2%
Helen Hunter (D)26.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
208,814 votes · D+12.0✓ Domingo Degrazia (D)28.6%
✓ Stephanie Stahl Hamilton (D)28.4%
Michael Hicks (R)22.5%
Mabelle Gummere (R)20.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
117,299 two-party votes · R+20.7 · R+25.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Joe Biden (D)39.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
84,242 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+30.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.8%
Also on the ballot in Arizona
Neighboring districts
LD-3Julie GableCody Reim2 seats99%Rep.96%Rep. LD-7Samuel MartinWalter Blackman2 seats>99%Rep.99%Rep. LD-8Brian GarciaDonald Hawker2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-9Lorena AustinBradley Bettencourt2 seats96%Dem.87%Dem. LD-14Mary RoseLaurin Hendrix2 seats97%Rep.88%Rep. LD-15—Neal CarterR vs R2 seats>99%Rep.>99%Rep.