Democratic
Arizona › Arizona State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 14
Biggs is clearly favored to win: Biggs wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Walsh (D)
11%
chance of winning
Biggs (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Biggs is clearly favored to win: Biggs wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Walsh (D)
12%
chance of winning
Biggs (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+11.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mylie Biggs
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 260,541
- People per km²
- 1,500
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 3%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
126,968 votes · R+20.3✓ Warren Petersen (R)60.1%
Elizabeth Brown (D)39.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
132,409 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.2%
Kamala Harris (D)40.8%
2022
72,809 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Warren Petersen (R)88.7%
Write-In (—)5.6%
Not Qualified (—)3.5%
Kristin Clark (—)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
106,058 votes · R+26.8✓ David Gowan (R)63.4%
Bob Karp (D)36.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
129,431 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+19.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Joe Biden (D)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
87,280 two-party votes · R+23.3 · R+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.3%