Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona › Arizona House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 23
2 seatsSandoval is clearly favored to win: Sandoval wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Sandoval (D)
94%
chance of winning
Peña (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sandoval is clearly favored to win: Sandoval wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Sandoval (D)
86%
chance of winning
Peña (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+10.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
2 seats in this district
1.8 D · 0.2 R expected of 2 seats
1.7 D · 0.3 R expected of 2 seats
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Mariana Sandoval
- Experience
- State legislature
Democratic
Emilia Cortez
RepublicanIncumbent
Michele Peña
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Gary Snyder
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 251,527
- People per km²
- 9
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 26%
- Hispanic 62%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
88,732 votes · R+5.8✓ Michele Pena (R)36.1%
✓ Mariana Sandoval (D)32.2%
Matias Rosales (D)31.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
82,396 two-party votes · D+1.8 · D+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.9%
Donald Trump (R)49.1%
2022
74,832 votes · D+3.3✓ Mariana Sandoval (D)36.1%
✓ Michele Pena (R)33.8%
Jesus Lugo Jr (D)29.7%
Write-In (—)0.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
231,828 votes · R+13.9✓ John Kavanagh (R)37.2%
✓ Joseph Chaplik (R)34.6%
Eric Kurland (D)28.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
81,990 two-party votes · D+13.0 · D+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)56.5%
Donald Trump (R)43.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
57,942 two-party votes · D+18.3 · D+16.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.2%
Donald Trump (R)40.8%
Also on the ballot in Arizona
Neighboring districts
LD-16Julia GusseChris LopezFlip risk2 seats69%Rep.56%Rep. LD-20Betty VillegasKatherine Weasel2 seats>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-21Consuelo HernandezChristopher Kibbey2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-22Elda Luna-NájeraBlaine Griffin Sr.2 seats>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-25Tiffany ByrneMichael Carbone2 seats99%Rep.98%Rep. LD-29Christine SciannaSteve Montenegro2 seats94%Rep.85%Rep.