Democratic
Arizona › Arizona State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Legislative District 27
Payne is clearly favored to win: Payne wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Clayton (D)
10%
chance of winning
Payne (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+10.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Payne is favored to win: Payne wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Clayton (D)
36%
chance of winning
Payne (R)
64%
- Average margin
- R+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Kevin Payne
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 242,745
- People per km²
- 1,580
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 4%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
69,937 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kevin Payne (R)96.2%
Write-In (—)3.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
106,508 two-party votes · R+11.4 · R+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%
2022
79,393 votes · R+10.3✓ Anthony Kern (R)55.1%
Brittani Barraza (D)44.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
74,114 votes · D+53.9✓ Rebecca Rios (D)76.9%
Garland Shreves (R)23.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
116,687 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
85,711 two-party votes · R+15.6 · R+17.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.2%
Also on the ballot in Arizona
Neighboring districts
LD-2Amelia GallitanoShawnna BolickFlip riskFlip risk50%Rep.60%Dem. LD-5Christine Marsh—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-22Eva Diaz—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-24Analise OrtizFrank Steele>99%Dem.99%Dem. LD-26Flavio BravoJim Bishop>99%Dem.>99%Dem. LD-28Michael BraunFrank Carroll99%Rep.96%Rep. LD-29Eric StaffordJanae Shamp93%Rep.85%Rep.