Democratic
South Dakota › South Dakota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Dakota Legislative District 26
Reimer is favored to win: Reimer wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Bordeaux (D)
37%
chance of winning
Reimer (R)
63%
- Average margin
- R+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Reimer is favored to win: Reimer wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Bordeaux (D)
29%
chance of winning
Reimer (R)
71%
- Average margin
- R+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Rebecca Reimer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Dakota state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,006
- People per km²
- 1
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 57%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
7,549 votes · R+14.7✓ Tamara Grove (R)57.3%
Shawn Bordeaux (D)42.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
7,553 two-party votes · R+12.8 · R+11.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Kamala Harris (D)43.6%
2022
5,978 votes · D+16.5✓ Shawn Bordeaux (D)58.3%
Joel Koskan (R)41.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
8,357 votes · D+5.7✓ Troy Heinert (D)52.8%
Joel Koskan (R)47.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
9,634 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Joe Biden (D)45.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
7,286 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+17.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%