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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

South Dakota › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

South Dakota Secretary of State

Baxter is very likely to win: Baxter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Davis (D)
1%
chance of winning
Baxter (R)
99%
Average margin
R+18.8
80% of outcomes
R+28 to R+10
Partisan lean
R+29
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Baxter is clearly favored to win: Baxter wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Davis (D)
5%
chance of winning
Baxter (R)
95%
Average margin
R+17.9
80% of outcomes
R+32 to R+5
Partisan lean
R+29
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+18.8R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+17.9R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Davis 1%Baxter 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Davis 5%Baxter 95%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
South Dakota state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+19.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+19.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in South Dakota andlook-alike placesR+17.5Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+18.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+17.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation7.02
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+31.9R+34.2 vs. nation2020 presidentR+26.9R+31.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+29.9R+28.4 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
907,428
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
56%of adults
  • White 80%
  • Hispanic 5%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 12%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

418,940 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+28.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Kamala Harris (D)35.1%

2022

332,323 votes · R+27.8
✓ Monae Johnson (R)63.9%
Thomas A Cool (D)36.1%

2020 President Vote in this state

411,514 two-party votes · R+26.9 · R+31.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Joe Biden (D)36.6%

2018

323,399 votes · R+30.4
✓ Steve Barnett (R)65.2%
Alexandra Frederick (D)34.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

345,179 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+34.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)66.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.0%

Also on the ballot in South Dakota

U.S. SenateBrian BengsMike Rounds93%Rep.93%Rep. GovernorDan AhlersLarry Rhoden90%Rep.92%Rep.